The Liberal Order

Speaking of Super Bowl ads . . .

. . . here is a funny remake of the old Coke commercial starring Amy Sedaris. Amy is from Raleigh and my wife and I enjoyed her talk at Quail Ridge Books last spring.

 

And Who's Making That Money?

Lotteries are taxes on the poor and those largely inept at understanding probability. Here is a story of a woman and her daughter who stole $389,001 in lottery tickets from the grocery store where they worked. 

And how did it work out for her (other than now going to jail)?

Of the lottery tickets she took from Lowes Foods, the SBI said, Barakat found eight winners, which she illegally redeemed for $11,090 in cash at local grocery stores. The winnings included one payout of $9,680 from a Lowes grocery, court records show.

The SBI says Montejano collected $34,035 in stolen lottery winnings from seven area grocery stores. They also think she redeemed two of the stolen tickets - one for $11,000 and the other for $10,000 - at the offices of state lottery headquarters on Yonkers Road.

All right, it's kind of confusing determining exactly how much she won, but let's say it was the larger number, $55,035 ($34,053 + $11,000 + $10,000). Had whe actually paid for the tickets in hopes of winning large, she would have won just 15.15 cents for every dollar she spent. If a casino returned those kinds of odds, they'd be thrown in jail for theft.

 

Potential Rule Changes for the NFL

In a move to seemingly reduce head-bashing collisions, the NFL moved the spot where kickoffs are made to the 35-yard line. The result is that most kickoffs sail out of the end zone for a touchback. 

Bill Belichick proposes two rule changes, one of which is to eliminate kickoffs altogether and have the offense just begin on the 20-yard line. The second is to get rid of the PAT (point after touchdown). Both, argues Belichick, do nothing to increase interest in the game and simply raise the cost to fans watching. Spoken like a true economist. (BTW - It's only the kickoff under the current rule change that does nothing to increase interest in the game since it's almost a given that the ball will be kicked out of the end zone.)

Now, author MJD offers a brillian alternative, which is to award the scoring team 7 points for each touchdown (the PAT is a gimme, why not just award it and not go through the motions), and if they wish to attempt a two-point conversion, allow it (but at the six-yard line). If the scoring team tries for two points and fails, they end up with six points rather than seven, and if the make it, they end up with eight points rather than seven.

Now if we could only get this rule change implemented. 

Monopoly Advice

It's back to school, which means many late nights playing the worst game for learning economics there is, but still a challenge. Here is some advice for Monopoly.

It was inevitable, of course, that mathematicians would enter the fray to help determine which properties are actually worth buying. In 1997, Dr. Irvin R. Hentzel of Iowa State University listed the properties where people were most likely to land -- and where others were most likely to see their bankroll expand. Discarding non-purchasable spaces like Free Parking and Go, here's what he came up with:

- Illinois Ave
- B&O Railroad
- Tennessee Ave.
- New York Ave.
- Reading Railroad
- St. James Place
- Water Works
- Pennsylvania Ave

 

John Tierney Confirms Once Again the Law of Unintended Consequences

The old tall jungle gyms and slides disappeared from most American playgrounds across the country in recent decades because of parental concerns, federal guidelines, new safety standards set by manufacturers and — the most frequently cited factor — fear of lawsuits.

Shorter equipment with enclosed platforms was introduced, and the old pavement was replaced with rubber, wood chips or other materials designed for softer landings. These innovations undoubtedly prevented some injuries, but some experts question their overall value.

“There is no clear evidence that playground safety measures have lowered the average risk on playgrounds,” said David Ball, a professor of risk management at Middlesex University in London. He noted that the risk of some injuries, like long fractures of the arm, actually increased after the introduction of softer surfaces on playgrounds in Britain and Australia.

“This sounds counterintuitive, but it shouldn’t, because it is a common phenomenon,” Dr. Ball said. “If children and parents believe they are in an environment which is safer than it actually is, they will take more risks. An argument against softer surfacing is that children think it is safe, but because they don’t understand its properties, they overrate its performance.”

Story here.

And the scariest part - 

“Paradoxically,” the psychologists write, “we posit that our fear of children being harmed by mostly harmless injuries may result in more fearful children and increased levels of psychopathology.”

 

 

A Diversion From Studying

Here's a neat two-minute diversion for students studying for finals.  

 

What Are the Odds?

Andrew Curliss of the News & Observer posts a good illustration explaining the relative odds of winning the Mega Millions jackpot. There are 175,711,536 possible combinations, which means that the odds of winning are .000000005691144.

Virginia used to advertise their lottery on the sides of the Metrobus using the slogan, "Virginia Lottery: Chance of winning without a ticket = 0." Given that at that time the odds of winning the Virginia Lotto was about .000000614, that's about as close to zero as zero, so the placard should have read, "Virginia Lottery: Chance of winning with or without a ticket = 0."

Anyway, to add some other comparisons to the odds of winning a Mega Millions jackpot,

• you have a better chance of taking four full decks of cards, sans Jokers, and randomly pulling out the Ace of Spades from each.  
• you have just as good a chance of flipping a fair two-sided coin and coming up heads twenty seven times in a row.
• you have a far better chance of having your home address randomly chosen from all the households in the US. 1:114,825,428 v. 1:175,711,536. 

Anti-Party Schools

What? No Hillsdale College? Are we slipping fellas?

HT: Craig Newmark